Player odds to win the Scoring Title

We're just over two weeks away from the start of the NHSL season.

While the teams are preparing on the ice, we've gone directly to the Bookies (his name is Dan, he lives at the Mile End train station and does his business in the corner of the Ice ArenA carpark and has a friendly dog) to figure out who their money is on to lead the competition in scoring.

Everyone loves a punt! And while you can't 'officially' gamble on the NHSL, what better to guess who will lead the league in scoring than looking at it in terms that every Aussie well and truly understands - betting odds!

Don't get mad at me for the betting odds. I don't make them, I simply report them.  

Here's what's stood out to me:

Short Odd Favourites 

Jake Riley - Stars ($1.60) - The bookies (Dan) have him at short odds here. That's what you get when you lead the local Premier League competition in scoring (46 points in 19 games), win a championship. He's also paired up with Jan Koubek who is known as "The Apple King" in these parts. More on Koubek below, but the slippery and high skilled Riley is as good a bet as any.

Steve Best - Brewers ($2.10) - Some money is moving to Captain Steve because of his prolific track record in South Australia of winning scoring titles. He came on strong at the end of the season with 19 points in his final 9 games, finishing with 37 in 20. On top of that he's playing with old familiar in Tyler Leeming. Best's numbers are a bit tilted this year because the Red Wings were decimated by injuries and playing partners for Steve. 

Nat Benson - Xtreme ($2.40) - This might be a value one right here. Benson had 45 points in 19 games this year with the Jokers. He displayed supreme playmaking ability and often set up scorers Daniel Chen and Jake Riley for some really nice goals. He's only 20-years-old. The only concern here is if he will be playing in a system that doesn't score as many goals but focuses on that two way game. The Xtreme will win a lot of games but will they score as much as others?

Xander Wardlaw - Xtreme ($3.00) - He's the same age-group as Riley and Benson and has been a top-scorer on Australian junior teams. While he is young and very much and unknown, he's been a huge producer in the East Coast Super League in NSW. Wardlaw led all scorers with 23 points, 15 of them goals. Danger awaits whatever line he plays on.

Joey MacDougall - Xtreme ($5.00) - Joey is a consistent scorer but only had four games with 3+ points in the local season. Riley (8), Benson (9) and Best (6) had more huge statistical games. Joey will be more concerned with winning the game than winning the scoring race.

Jan Koubek - Stars ($7.00) - Jan finished second in scoring in 2020 playing on a line with Josef Rezek. He finished 7th in 2021 playing with Ryan Foll. Here's the impact Koubek can have on an elite scorer - Joey Rezek had 35 points in 11 games. Make no mistake, Rezek is as good a goal scorer as there is in the country, but Koubek helped service that. Now he gets to play with Riley. The Bookies would have him higher if he scored more goals.

MIDDLE FAVOURITES

I'll save you the descriptions but here's who has stood out to me for value bets.

Tyler Leeming is a multiple time MVP of the local competition and has scored in big wave before. Ben Handberg has serious upside and a professional system will benefit him. Ryan Foll always lurks around the top scorers. And Zach Boyle is intriguing - he's a blue liner but averages well over a point per game. Is he this year's version of J̶e̶f̶f̶ ̶F̶o̶d̶e̶ Erik Karlsonn? 

The odds are: 

- Tyler Leeming - Brewers ($10.00)
- Ben Handberg - Brewers ($12.00)
- Ryan Foll - Stars ($15.00)
- Zach Boyle - Brewers ($18.00)

LONGER ODDS 

These ones are a bit longer odds, but might be good value. 

Zach Steele ($20.00): The Bookies will see less than a point per game from Steele in the Premier League season. But what the Bookies don't comprehend is that Steele played defense for the Blackhawks. Now he gets a chance to star in an offensive role. What if Steele ends up playing with Jake Riley? Or what if he pairs with Daniel Chen and gets the second line match-ups to exploit. 

Daniel Chen ($36.00): Daniel isn't available until early December when he turns 18 but the young Joker star really turned it on at the end of the year. He had 12 points in his last six games (including Playoffs) and powered to a 24-point rookie campaign.

Olli Martin ($40.00) - Martin only had a handful of points in six games in the Premier League but he only had a handful of shifts as well playing mainly third line minutes on a two-and-a-half line team. 

But he has dominated the A-Grade competition in recent years. What if ends up on a top line with a player like Benson or MacDougall? Olli's shot is the most lethal going around so he'll have plenty of opportunities to rack them up.  

Tyler Boyle ($45.00): Playing maybe on a line with Steve Best and Tyler Leeming, Boyle has shown goal scoring ability in the Premier League. 

REALLY, REALLY LONG SHOTS

I talked to the bookies (Dan) and asked why they (Dan) thinks these ones could hit. His descriptions are below. 

Tom Tait ($350.00) - Tom was not selected by Red Wings teammate Bill Newbound in the NHSL draft. Instead, the defenseman - who had 8 points in 20 Premier League games - will play for the Xtreme. By all reports he's crushing it at pre-season training. Maybe Tom transforms from a steady, reliable stay-at-home defenseman to an elite goalscorer out of spite?

Jeremy Friederich ($500.00) - It's rare to see a goalie on this list, but Friederich had three assists in the Premier League competition. He loves to play the puck and he loves being the centre of attention. Who knows? Maybe something crazy happens.

Greg Oddy ($500.00) - I asked the question: "What? Greg? He's not even playing." The bookies (Dan) simply responded: "Would you ever doubt Aussie Gretzky? He always seems to make his way on the scoresheet - even when he's on the bench."

Well...that was good fun! Thanks Dan!